Montana and Weber State duke it out for Big Sky title
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
03/10/2010 -
Ogden, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A trip to the NCAA Tournament is on the line
tonight, as the Weber State Wildcats and the Montana Grizzlies do battle in
the championship game of the 35th annual Big Sky Conference Tournament at the
Dee Events Center in Ogden, Utah.
As the top seed in this year's event and an owner of eight Big Sky Tournament
titles, Weber State had to play only one game in order to make it into the
finals and that was a 69-60 win over sixth-seeded Portland State on Tuesday
night. The victory was revenge for the regular-season finale in which the
Vikings captured an 84-79 win to snap WSU's five-game win streak.
As for fourth-seeded Montana, it began the annual event with an 81-60 thumping
of Northern Arizona in the quarterfinals on Saturday and then a 68-63 win
versus second-seeded Northern Colorado last night in the semifinals. The
Grizzlies, who won back-to-back crowns in 2005 and 2006, the former coming
against this same Weber State club, has a total of six tourney championships
to their credit.
The teams split their two regular-season meetings, with each winning on their
home floor. As a result, Weber State remains ahead in the all-time series with
a 58-47 mark.
Anthony Johnson came up with 19 points, hitting all but one of his eight free-
throw attempts, as he guided the Grizzlies to the upset win over Northern
Colorado on Tuesday. Also scoring in double figures for Montana were Ryan
Staudacher and Will Cherry with 10 points apiece, although the former did his
damage on 4-of-5 shooting from the field and the latter just 4-of-12 accuracy.
Johnson, the leading scorer in each of the last three games and nine of the
last 10 outings, is responsible for 18.9 ppg on the strength of not only 50
percent shooting from the field, but also 46.7 percent beyond the arc and 184-
of-211 at the charity stripe. As someone who forces the action as well as
anyone in the conference, Johnson made twice as many free-throws as all but
one of his teammates even had a chance to attempt this season. Staudacher, a
45.8 percent three-point shooter himself, helped the program to make good on
40.2 percent of their threes altogether.
With Portland State's Dominic Waters in foul trouble, Damian Lillard took over
for the Wildcats last night as he tallied a game-high 23 points, grabbed five
rebounds and handed out four assists in the nine-point win at home. Franklin
Session added 13 points and eight boards in order to shake off five turnovers,
while Trevor Morris tallied 10 points in just 21 minutes off the bench for a
Weber State squad that outscored the visitors at the free-throw line, 22-6.
Lillard, the leading scorer in each of the last three games for the Wildcats,
has generated a team-best 20.7 ppg against Big Sky foes this season, shooting
an impressive 44.0 percent from three-point range in those decisions. As
someone who gets involved in all facets of the game, Lillard also led the team
in assists with 110 and has been credited with better than four rebounds per
game as well. Steve Panos (11.0 ppg) and Session (10.6 ppg) also lend a hand
at the offensive end of the floor.
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “
What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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